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Mounting apprehensions exist about the possibility of warfare among East African neighbours, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as hostile rhetoric has ratcheted up in the past few weeks.

What Did Ethiopian Officials Declared?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for passage to the sea coast through Eritrean territory has triggered a fierce verbal exchange.

Ethiopian Prime Minister previously announced in 2023 that his government's sea access was an crucial concern, comments that Eritrean authorities rejected.

Relations between the two countries have regularly been difficult. After a prolonged fight for sovereignty, the Eritrean state, which has a extensive sea border, formally separated from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, rendering it without sea access.

Subsequently, a border war broke out in which more than 100,000 people were killed.

Recent Remarks from Ethiopian Leadership

Abiy and army chief General Birhanu Jula have directly stated control of Eritrean maritime facility of the port of Assab – about 60km from the boundary - and suggested the desire to capture it through military means.

On 1 September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "error" of losing access to the Red Sea as a result of Eritrean independence would be "corrected soon".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be given back "by force".

Eritrean Response to the Threats

Despite continuous challenges from Ethiopia, Eritrea's reaction has been restricted to brief comments on online platforms from Information Minister the minister.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's demand for access to the Red Sea describing it as "risky" and a "negative policy" of "irredentism" – a strategy of retaking former lands.

The information ministry cautioned on recently that moves to justify "obvious provocation" would have significant repercussions for Ethiopia and its neighbors and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Preparations on the Ground

Currently, there are few indications of significant troop deployments in the border areas between the two countries.

Nonetheless, in Ethiopia, national TV has broadcast training completions of many recruits at multiple army bases.

The director of personnel division of the armed forces, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, recently said in an conversation that the army was in a "secure situation" as "tens of thousands of recruits" were enlisting, which he said was "a signal to our opponents".

Historical Roots of the Tension

For decades from the late 19th century, Eritrea was ruled by Italian colonisers.

Following World War II, it was then managed by the UK forces before turning into a federated part of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in the early 1960s the ruler terminated this arrangement and the region became totally absorbed into Ethiopia.

A thirty-year internal conflict followed, concluding with military reversal in the early 1990s. Independence was then endorsed by voters in a vote in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were good relations between the governments in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they clashed over the specific demarcation of their mutual frontier, leading to war in 1998.

Even though this ended in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the both countries remained at in dispute.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made gestures to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The two signed a statement that the conflict was finished – a action that gained Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize.

The neighboring states were then partners in Ethiopia's recent internal conflict in the northern region.

However relations have subsequently deteriorated again.