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"I will remain in the same position by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer declared, joking that if our discussion proceeded smoothly, he might invite us into his official residence for a follow-up chat next year.

There is never truly downtime for prime ministers. Just an hour before we sat down, Sir Keir had been in calls with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky and attempting to understand precisely had occurred in Venezuela, where his key ally, US President Donald Trump, had just attacked and captured its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

By the time the discussion, which was far more extended than normal, had concluded, Maduro had been formally accused in New York.

A Refresh for the New Year

But as the year commences, Starmer seems to have had a degree of a refresh. Maybe even just a bit of downtime with his family at Chequers, the prime minister's rural getaway.

This appeared to have left him in a more positive mood than at the saggy end of 2025, a terrible annus horribilis for him.

Yet, are he and his allies deluding themselves if they believe his standing are set to get better?

Leadership Questions

The harsh truth for the PM is that many of his fellow MPs are convinced he's ineffective at his job. A faction of them would rather take a risk and oust him sooner rather than later.

But Sir Keir was rejecting the idea in the interview on Saturday morning.

Multiple times he stated he'd be "evaluated at the poll", arguing nobody would take his term from him – even if the best chance of preventing Nigel Farage and Reform UK entering No 10 might be for Labour to change leader.

"We are in the struggle of our times and I plan to guide the party," he declared.

Upcoming Local Votes

The problem for the PM is that he will be judged far sooner than then – in a major set of elections in May across the UK. He tried to protest, perhaps excessively, that they are concerning who runs local authorities, and who runs the governments in Holyrood or Cardiff – and unrelated to Westminster.

Accurate – up to a point. But although he may not want to concede it, No 10 will be evaluated by those elections too.

Despite this, Sir Keir implying that there were no circumstances under which he would resign, even if a his MPs contested his leadership for the job, if those elections prove very poor for Labour.

An Optimistic Outlook

He tried to rationalise his unpopularity by saying the public was understandably anxious for things to change. He tried to convince the interviewer, and the public, that this year would be a change.

The economy would strengthen despite rising unemployment, he argued, when plans the government enacted during their first rocky year began to take effect.

• He committed to empty asylum hotels before the current deadline of 2029, but he wouldn't put a firm date on that.
• He noted too, with the qualification that it was not a certainty, that a peace deal in Ukraine felt a greater possibility now than at any point since Russia's comprehensive invasion.
• He revealed for the first occasion that Western partners were now talking about how to combine US and European forces to ensure security for Ukraine – to guard a possible peace.

His big point is that in 2026 the country will "turn the corner".

Familiar Arguments

The PM may have spoken with greater vigour than I've seen from him for a while – more relaxed, maybe, with more time to talk.

However, in spite of encountering calls from within his own party for a more decisive strategy, with much more political vision, more urgency, more pace and more urgency, his explanations were well-known ones.

Given that he is in such significant political peril, does he need a change of tack?

No government, and certainly not one that has been struggling in the polls for many months, has everything its as desired.

Sir Keir's challenges are not just because government is hard, but because he and his colleagues have faltered, including in the recent past.

Controversies and Dangers

The PM admitted that he regretted saying he was "delighted" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an controversy when comments he'd made in the past – such as calls for Zionists and police to be killed – came to light.

Starmer attributed it to "procedures" for not realising what the activist had said before – a more diplomatic way of saying not my fault.

And he is inviting clear political risks as the year progresses. His close relationship with the US president acquires a new complication after Trump's strikes on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who opposed the war in Iraq, over a long period, the idea he would be at ease with such action seems unlikely.

International Law and Brexit

He told me he was a "career-long advocate of international law" but we "simply lack the full picture at the moment".

Opponents wanted him to denounce it before the interview. And the administration is expected to face further scrutiny to give an clear view in Parliament in the near future.

There has also consistently been bubbling desire in the Labour party to reverse or renegotiate some of the outcomes of Brexit.

The PM disputes he's doing that, but his new firmer plan to move closer with the single market – the huge economic European market – will likely trigger howls that he is going back on his vow never to try to reverse the results that stemmed from Brexit.

A decision to integrate into more of the single market will delight some on his backbenches, but it is simple material for Reform and the Conservatives to